BMW-targeted concept demonstration. Operational entities, suppliers, parts, inventory, production, financial values and incident conditions are synthetic and do not represent BMW systems, performance or current exposure.
Decision Impact Ledger
Which decision protects the greatest operational value, how long it stays viable, what it costs, and what happens if management waits. Synthetic demonstration data; every figure is calculated from the visible inputs.
Recommended based on current verified inputs
INC-2026-0113 · Meridian Stamping ransomware — ERP and EDI unavailable · calculation fin-2026.03.1
Acting within the next 21 hours, 24 minutes is projected to protect 2,673 units and $95,046,534 of revenue exposure, $94,982,908 net of action and recovery cost.
Waiting past that deadline removes this option. The projected loss then returns to the do-nothing baseline: 3,662 units and $130,211,920 of revenue exposure — an increase of $95,046,534 in unprotected exposure and $90,882 in additional recovery cost.
Do-nothing baseline — the control case
No additional management intervention. No avoided-loss claim is permitted anywhere in this product without this baseline.
Show the baseline calculation
- No additional management intervention. Supplier recovery held at 72h, horizon 48h.
- First impact = 22.4h at Synthetic SC Assembly, Line SC-2 (final assembly).
- Interruption = min(recovery 72h, horizon 48h) − hours to impact, per exposed line; longest = 25.6h.
- Units not produced = interruption hours × line rate, summed = 3,662 units.
- Revenue exposure = units × recorded revenue per unit = $130,211,920 (approved value per unit $35,558).
- Recovery cost = 3,662 backlog units × $34 overtime per unit = $124,508.
- Customer-service exposure = value of order shortfalls = $6,740,400.
- Normalisation = interruption 25.6h + backlog 3,662 units ÷ 65.2 units/hr spare capacity (20% of line rate) = 81.8h.
Financial methodology
Revenue exposure is calculated from the line records. Contribution is shown only when the customer supplies an approved ratio. Reputational, market, regulatory and customer-loss values are never included.
Contribution exposure is not shown: no customer-approved contribution methodology has been provided. Revenue is not profit.
Executive comparison
Every option is measured against the do-nothing run of the same calculation. Select a row to see inputs, formula, evidence, cost, consequence and why it is or is not recommended.
| Option | Time protected | Net value preserved | Residual risk | Decision clock | Viability | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Do nothing — no additional management intervention Control case · The control case. Every other option is measured against this run. | 0h stops at 22.4h | −$124,508 gross $0k − cost $0 | Critical $130.2M remains | Decision still available no deadline | Viable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Reduce the production rate to 70% Stretch existing stock by building slower across the exposed lines. Recommended based on current verified inputs | 12.5h stops at 34.9h | $94,982,908 gross $95.0M − cost $30,000 | Moderate $35.6M remains | Decision still available 21 hours, 24 minutes | Conditionally viable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Inputs and formula
Cost of the action
Cost categories that remain unknown — they are not estimated:
Constraint validationDepends on: Production-sequence limitations, Labour availability. Each must be confirmed by the named owner before execution.
Operational benefit, consequence and authorityTime protected12.5h Units protected2,673 Gross exposure avoided$95,046,534 Net value preserved$94,982,908 Contribution preservednot shown — no approved contribution methodology Residual exposure$35,637,520 · Moderate Earliest activation1h Latest effective decision21 hours, 24 minutes Required authorityPlant Manager · Customer Programs Lead Evidence confidenceSupported estimate Downstream consequence
Prerequisites
RecommendationRecommended based on current verified inputs: highest net value preserved ($94,982,908) of the 2 options that pass their modelled constraints. It is conditionally viable — the listed prerequisites must be confirmed before execution. Financial methodfin-2026.03.1 · revenue exposure only; contribution requires an approved ratio | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Release 3221 units of protected safety stock Authorise consumption of safety stock on the exposed part–line pairs. | 4h stops at 26.4h | $21,398,972 gross $21.5M − cost $4,840 | Critical $107.9M remains | Decision still available 22 hours, 24 minutes | Viable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Transfer 98R-1225 from another plant Move usable stock of the constraining part from a plant that can spare it. | not calculable stops at 22.4h | −$128,708 gross $0k − cost $4,200 | Critical $130.2M remains | Decision still available 13 hours, 54 minutes | Not currently viable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Expedite a confirmed inbound shipment Bring dispatched supply forward with premium freight. | not calculable stops at 22.4h | −$134,008 gross $0k − cost $9,500 | Critical $130.2M remains | Decision no longer viable an unknown period | Not currently viable | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Decision clock
Each deadline is the remaining production window minus the implementation time. It moves whenever inventory, supplier recovery, shipment status or consumption changes.
Transfer 98R-1225 from another plant Arrival / implementation 8.5h · units protected 0 · direct cost $4,200 · exposure reduced $0k · residual $130.2M · confidence Verified fact · approvals Materials Management, Plant Manager (donor) | 13 hours, 54 minutes Decision still available |
Reduce the production rate to 70% Arrival / implementation 1h · units protected 2,673 · direct cost $30,000 · exposure reduced $95.0M · residual $35.6M · confidence Supported estimate · approvals Plant Manager, Customer Programs Lead | 21 hours, 24 minutes Decision still available |
Release 3221 units of protected safety stock Arrival / implementation 0h · units protected 605 · direct cost $4,840 · exposure reduced $21.5M · residual $107.9M · confidence Verified fact · approvals Materials Management, Plant Manager | 22 hours, 24 minutes Decision still available |
Expedite a confirmed inbound shipment Arrival / implementation — · units protected 0 · direct cost $9,500 · exposure reduced $0k · residual $130.2M · confidence Verified fact · approvals Inbound Logistics Lead | an unknown period Decision no longer viable |
Decision Impact Ledger
Append-only. Selected and rejected options are both preserved, with the baseline, inputs, rule versions, authority and deadline that applied at the moment of approval.
No decision recorded yet for this incident. Open an option above and approve it to create the record.
Related: executive brief · what buys us time · 12-minute war-game · calculation method. Current run: 1 part–line pairs remain unresolved, which limits confidence rather than improving it.