BMW-targeted concept demonstration. Operational entities, suppliers, parts, inventory, production, financial values and incident conditions are synthetic and do not represent BMW systems, performance or current exposure.

Inventory runout timeline

Time is the primary axis. Every bar is calculated from records you can open, using assumptions you can change.

INC-2026-0113 · S1 · responding

Exposure cannot be fully determined. Missing information increases—not decreases—decision risk.

▲1 affected part–line pairs have no inventory record. They are shown as unresolved, never as safe.

Hours to production interruption by line

now4h12h24h48h7d

Confirmedrunout 22.4h1,126 units · $46.4M

Part	Usable	Quarantine	Safety	Inbound	Use/hr	Runout	Status	Source / as of
98R-1225 Door inner panel A	1476	0	430	0 (excl.)	66	22.4h	Possible	Integration register 2026-01-19 · 2026-03-14 · validated
14Z-1025 Door inner panel A· single-source	1111	0	92	0	45.5	24.4h	Confirmed	Contract schedule A · 2026-03-10 · validated

Calculation for the driving part (98R-1225)

Usable inventory = on hand 1906 − quarantined 0 − safety stock 430 = 1476 units
Effective consumption = 64.3/hr × 1 × (1 + scrap 0.027 × 1) = 66/hr
In-transit 449 units arrives in 25h, after stock runs out — excluded
Hours to impact = (1476 + 0) ÷ 66 = 22.4h

Confirmedrunout 28.2h950 units · $26.0M
Confirmedrunout 28.3h1,024 units · $28.1M
Confirmedrunout 33.2h562 units · $29.7M
Possiblerunout 52.3h0 units · $0k
Confirmedrunout 59.2h0 units · $0k
Confirmedrunout 71.5h0 units · $0k
Probablerunout 84.4h0 units · $0k

usable stock confirmed inbound interruption window supplier recovery estimate alternate source available

Assumptions

Consumption multiplier · 1.00×Scrap multiplier · 1.0×Supplier recovery estimate · 72hExposure horizon · 48hAuthorise safety-stock consumptionCount confirmed in-transit supplyExpedited freight authorised

Assumption changes recalculate every runout, line exposure and the operational exposure score immediately. The stored records are never overwritten.

Alternate sources & continuity

27A-1000 → Northbend Castings
qualified · activation 36h · 480/day · validated 2026-01-12
14Z-1025 → Belmont Die Casting
partial · activation 96h · 260/day · validated 2025-05-10
40Y-1050 → Weyland Forge
unqualified · activation 240h · 150/day · never validated
40W-1100 → Grayson Machining
qualified · activation 48h · 620/day · validated 2026-02-17
99H-1007 → Cordoba Bearings
partial · activation 72h · 340/day · validated 2025-09-08

Manual EDI processing — releases & ASNs
RTO 8h · RPO 15m · capacity 220/day · tested 2025-10-26
Supplier isolation and re-onboarding
RTO 4h · RPO 0m · capacity 0/day · tested 2026-01-18
SC Assembly body shop bank build-ahead
RTO 24h · RPO 60m · capacity 180/day · never tested

Customer orders at risk

Build capacity before each due time, orders filled in due-date order.

PGM-3-4422Confirmed
Delmar Auto Group · firm EDI release · Line SC-3 (chassis) · due T+66h
246 of 458 units short · $6.7M

1 order(s) short · 246 units · $6.7M

Legend

Confirmed material impactProbable or imminentPossible / evidence gapResponse underwayValidated operationalUnknown / not assessed